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Emmanuele Fabbiani
29 Feb 2024
Forecasting
Utility
Energy
Introduction
A leading Italian utility wanted to improve its power load forecasting models, just one year old. For utilities, load forecasting is key for market trading and portfolio management.
The problem statement was quite standard: given 3 years of historical data and 2 years of weather forecasts, provide 1 to 4 day-ahead predictions of hourly power load.
Still, there were two main challenges. First, residential and industrial customers in each market region had to be considered separately. Second, data got available with a 2-month delay. Therefore, standard short-term forecasting techniques were not applicable.
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Research Insights
A leading Italian utility wanted to improve its power load forecasting models, just one year old. For utilities, load forecasting is key for market trading and portfolio management.
The problem statement was quite standard: given 3 years of historical data and 2 years of weather forecasts, provide 1 to 4 day-ahead predictions of hourly power load.
Still, there were two main challenges. First, residential and industrial customers in each market region had to be considered separately. Second, data got available with a 2-month delay. Therefore, standard short-term forecasting techniques were not applicable.
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